John Giorgi explains if you go through different studies and surveys. You will notice a sense of optimism about the global economic recovery as the business leaders express their thoughts and opinions. One of the reports shows that about 76% of 5,050 CEOs across different counties and regions believe that there will be a remarkable rebound in 2021. Only 22% think that it will be marginal growth from 2020 after the COVID-19 led destructions. Although the virus has not disappeared, the vaccine rollout at high speed is a strong reason to imagine recovery. Plus, digital acceleration during the onset of the pandemic is another factor to hope for the best.
However, you may still wonder what this recovery will be like when it starts reflecting. According to John Giorgi, you have to consider three integral components of the global economy in this regard, such as consumers, debt, and supply and demand.
Global economic outlook by John Giorgi
Consumer, stimulus packages, and real estate
The US rolled out over $4 Trillion COVID-19 stimulus packages in the last year. And global central banks also worked on easy money policies to encourage international economic activities. If you observe these areas, you will realize that the world leaders and central banks released massive monetary assistance to the globe during the period. It needs proper and accurate use to get the economy back on track and growth. In this context, a critical aspect that deserves attention is consumer behavior. If you know, real estate and investment or trading markets in the US and across the globe have attracted people.
John Giorgi points out that Americans were conservative about credit card debts and spending. Still, their involvement in the stock markets has been drastically higher compared to the last twelve months. As for the housing market, reduced interest rates and decreased supply kept the housing sector busy. Plus, the work-for-home culture led many people to the rural areas for settling down as a part of the new normal.
Personal consumption expenses
Another thing that can be a sign of economic recovery is the consumers buying durable goods and essential items for their families and lifestyles. Despite the high unemployment rates and job changes forced by the pandemic. such behavior has been able to continue due to stimulus packages and unemployment assistance. What do you mean by durable goods? Of course, these don’t include grocery or general use products. Durable goods cover planes, furniture, electronics, cars, jewelry, books, and so on. The US durable goods segment hints at the trend of large-ticket purchases.
From all this, it can be safe to assume that things can gradually improve and become better. However, it is too early to predict anything with certainty until countries fully control the pandemic-led situation and lockdowns end. Returning to normalcy is also critical, which again looks possible after the arrival of vaccines. Still, as long as the world leaders keep the public interest in mind. And make effective changes, one doesn’t have to worry too much.